Blogger: Janet Kobobel Grant
Trends spring out of seemingly thin air. Who would have guessed that these books would become New York Times best-sellers and start trends that went on for years: Left Behind, Harry Potter, Heaven Is for Real?
One publisher dared to produce each of these books (two of which became series). What did that publisher see the others didn’t? I suspect each publisher of the above books hoped that, perhaps, just maybe, the title would earn back its advance. A publisher took a risk. No one foresaw that these titles would bring in millions of dollars and start trends.
What happens in a risk averse environment, such as exists in publishing today? Breakout books are unlikely to emerge. We all can predict that Karen Kingsbury’s next book will sell well. Or 
that the next story about someone coming back from heaven will do decently. But what is the next Big Thing in publishing? Who is the next major author? Someone, somewhere is tapping away on his or her keyboard on the 25th revision of that manuscript right now.
But will that manuscript clear the hurdle over the editor’s desk, into the publishing committee, and be greeted with a, “Yes, we dare”? In today’s publishing climate, I have to say I’m becoming increasingly skeptical that will happen.
If that trend-starter doesn’t get published, publishers will end up competing for the same authors and the same topics, the sure bets. Then, the only way an author or agent can decide which publishing house to go with is through the size of the advance. Because, suddenly, all the publishers look alike. That’s part of the fallout of not taking risks with what is acquired. Because each publishing house not only will be risk averse in what they choose to publish but also in experimenting with new marketing ideas. Risk aversion, once it sets in, permeates a publishing house. It isn’t localized in editorial.
Part of the aftermath of that unpublished manuscript is that the next trend will be squelched. You know what happens when a book takes off like crazy? More books sell for everyone who becomes part of the trend that title set into motion. Left Behind opened the New York Times list to Christian fiction; the list and Christian fiction haven’t been the same since.It’s the proverbial idea that a rising tide lifts all boats.
I understand why publishers want the sure bet. Who among us doesn’t? I have no problem deciding I want to represent a best-selling author or a manuscript that taps into the rich vein of a trend. I get that, if a publisher takes too many risks that don’t pan out, the publisher could jeopardize its health. That’s why these projects are risks–the stakes can be high. What I’m suggesting is that the publisher undertake a certain percentage of titles each year that are risks, but reasons exist that make a compelling argument to publish this manuscript, not that one.
Agents can’t make publishers take risks. Authors can’t make publishers take risks. Only publishers can choose to listen to their gut instincts (remember those?) and take a chance. For all of our decrying how many changes are taking place in our industry, perhaps one of the most important aspects of the current environment to consider is the one the industry has some control over: to take a risk on a new author or to publish a book that everyone around the publishing committee table feels needs to be published. The next Big Thing is one “yes” away.
What other risks can you recall that publishers took that paid off handsomely for everyone?
If you were on a publishing committee what risks would you want to take? What would hold you back from doing so?
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Wow! I don’t think I even realized how true this post is until I started searching for an example of a publisher taking a risk. I could not find one. All the NY Times best sellers seem to be written by people who are already published or already famous. The good news is that risk is necessary for reward so I believe that all is not lost in the world of publishing.
Kate, great reward awaits those who risk. Sadly, good reward awaits those who take no chances.
What jumped out most here is that publishers are becoming the same. So true. I used to be able to predict certain qualities in a book based on the publisher’s insignia on the spine. Not so much any more. And yes, it does seem that the big names just keep getting pumped out there.
Perhaps the market is adjusting by the proliferation of indie publishers, small houses, royalty-without-advance publishers, e-books, and self-publishing. Some of these are great options; some not so great. [I just spoke with a man who shelled out $16,000 to buy 4,000 of his own books without any idea how to distribute them. Yikes!]
One one level, there’s more space than ever before for authors now. It’s just that coveted space of “traditional publishing” that’s tightening its belt.
Amen to risk. The risk of signing new authors. The risk of breaking molds. The risk of spending marketing dollars. Until publishers take back much of the responsibility for marketing new authors, it’s going to be an uphill fight for the next potential trend-setter.
I love the free Master’s Degree I’m earning on the Books & Such Blog.
Bill, self-pubbing is the wild card in publishing nowadays. It’s a blessing in that there’s always the crazy chance a book will break out, bit it’s also pumping uncurated projects into the pipeline, often clogging the line with inferior product, making it all the harder for worthy books to gain readers’ attention.
Interesting post, Janet. Has me pondering this whole idea of risk aversion from a writing perspective as well. Why am I comfortable with some topics rather than others? What keeps me from submitting work that may seem to be a bit different?
I’m not suggesting publishers aren’t increasingly likely to play it safe and in the process close the door to new trends…yet, I wonder…maybe one option we have as writers is to be bold and brave, do our best work, and step out, not unlike the authors you mention.
“The next Big Thing is one ‘yes’ away.” Yes!!
Micky, it’s a good point that authors need to avoid being trend-followers and be trendsetters, just like publishers.
Although, don’t you think that publishers are more likely to take a trendsetting book from a non-risky (trusted, tried and true) author? It’s hard to know when a newish author can do something risky. Sometimes it is just the thing to push him into that “intriguing” space and sometimes it is too scary for traditional publishers– unknown author, edgy topic.
Great post, Janet. You have me thinking. Again. 🙂 You’re good at that.
I haven’t studied publishers enough to see that they are risk averse. Hearing your perspective, as an agent who knows the industry and knows the market, really helps me see the big picture, and the challenges publishers, agents, and writers face.
Was Suzanne Collins published much before the Hunger Games Trilogy? That series really took off.
Having watched a couple friends get their books published, it’s been interesting to watch how different publishers have gone about launching and marketing the books. I noticed varying amounts of effort put forth by their respective publishers.
If I was on a publishing committee, I’d like to think I’d be willing to take a risk on a new voice that was distinctive. On a book well-written. I guess it would have to be unique in some way too. I don’t think I have the eye to discern what is going to catch readers’ attention, but it’s interesting trying to think about factors the committees must need to consider. 🙂
I agree with you, Jeanne, on your criteria — distinctive voice, well-written, and unique. But as with so much of art, it seems to be subjective. Who decides which voice is distinctive or what is unique? I can definitely understand that publishing conundrum.
Meghan, one of the benefits of looking at a ton of submissions is that the unique ones stand out. The challenge is to know which unusual project will sell like crazy. I’m perfectly willing to confess I wouldn’t have published Left Behind, Harry Potter, or Heaven Is for Real. That’s why they were risks. There was nothing inherent in any of them that was easy to spot as a breakout book.
Collins also wrote the Underland Chronicles in the early to mid 2000s, but I honestly hadn’t heard of her until The Hunger Games trilogy. Now, part of that might be because my daughters were little back then and weren’t part of her target market; but for me anyway, it shows how much social media has impacted book promotion. Even if my girls didn’t read The Hunger Games series, I would have heard about it.
Thanks, Cheryl. I didn’t know that.
Jeanne, I believe Collins wrote a series pre-Hunger Games. What I think got Hunger Games to rocket liftoff was that movie stars started reading/recommending it. Now maybe they had inside info that a movie was coming, but I’m sure that helped fuel the publicity!
Interesting, Heather. I didn’t realize that. 🙂
Other risks, Janet? I don’t know a lot about publishing history, so I’m speculating. But I wonder how many of what we now consider to be classics were once risky. J.R.R. Tolkien. C.S. Lewis. Madeleine L’Engle. Of course, now that I’m trying to write out a list, I’m drawing a blank. 🙂
I do know Madeleine L’Engle was rejected numerous times. I can’t recall the story behind Lewis and Tolkien. But certainly no one said, “Let’s publish these; they’ll become classics.”
I think THE HELP was rejected at least 60 times!
God morning, Janet.
If I was on a pub committee, I’d endeavor to look across the market to move into the realms of the CBA that are not meeting the need to readers of colour.
I’m saying this with my ‘super polite Canadian’ voice…not all readers are of Anglo descent. Yet when I go to the bookstore, I see that 99% of the book cover models are really quite far skinned. There is a segment of the CBA that do not exactly identify with the majority of what is offered them.
I am fairly certain that anyone from the Apache doctor who needs some downtime reading, to the Zuni housewife who needs something to read at the gym.
My focus is to write within the CBA to reach readers who want to see their histories on the page, not just the very nice Amish people.
Okay, stepping down off the soap-box.
*Good…but hey, go with ‘God morning’. I just said that to Reba Hoffman, too!
Jennifer, one area in which traditional publishing–especially medium- to large-sized publishers–is not good at is reaching niche audiences, which is what the nonAnglo audience is in CBA. I know publishers have tried to develop African American lines or even single titles, but those tend to do poorly because the publisher doesn’t know how to reach that audience. This is where the publisher has to weigh the risk against the probable loss of money and make a business decision.
Hi, Janet, et al. I know I’m late to the party on this topic, but I discussed this very issue with a fellow African-American woman at my job yesterday. I think that–if CBA publishers want to address an inability to reach a wide AA audience–they’ll have to rethink certain stereotypes that AA-focused projects (both inspirational and mainstream) tend to perpetuate.
If I pick up a book, for instance, that purports to portray middle-class AA’s–but they all sound like throwback characters from “Blaxploitation” films made in the ’70’s (and, yes, that’s a real term–LOL!)–it’s a turnoff. I won’t read it. Yes, there’s something to be said for realism. But, for every AA relative, friend, or co-worker I have who hails from a home in which people spoke a certain way, ate certain foods, or behaved in a certain manner, I have another AA acquaintance for whom such language and behavior is completely foreign. I just think we ought to mix it up a little.
Another turnoff? The African-American church setting where: (1) every elderly Black woman wears a mammoth hat, wields a mean fan, and sports the requisite loud, print dress; (2) the choir (which has been largely replaced by praise and worship teams in modern AA churches) wears garish choir robes and sings “old Negro spirituals”; (3)there’s an inevitable young seductress on the prowl for an unsuspecting pastor/preacher; and (4) said pastor/preacher is a mean, lean preaching machine but wavers in his spirituality. My question: Can’t we try something more original? (LOL!)
Sadly, even AA writers/artists (both inspy and mainstream) often perpetuate at least some of the aforementioned stereotypes in an effort to cater to a certain segment of the market that’s likely to buy/read it in large numbers. But, what about the rest of us? (LOL!)
Okay… Stepping off my soapbox and back into my lonely writing cave. Hahahaha! Blessings, all!
Sybil, thanks for recounting the African American stereotypes that are so easy to fall into. Writing is so much easier if we don’t have to be creative and authentic, don’t you think?
Jennifer, I’m with you there. Not just about offering an African-American line or something of that nature, but a multi-cultural world like the one I live in in the suburbs of the Baltimore-Washington area. Most of my daughters school friends are not only non-white, but their parents are from other countries. We have a map on our wall where we look up where her friends families are from. Multi-cultural day at school is vivid for us. I’d love to see more of that in Christian fiction!
I would think the Yada Yada prayer group books might be a good example of this. And those books seem to have done well.
I’d just like to butt in and say my first LIS comes out next year (Double Agent) and features a mixed race couple and the man is half African-American. 🙂
I grew up outside of London which is SO multi-cultural and it was just natural for me to do that.
You took my spiel, Jennifer…but thank you!! 🙂 I know, as Janet said, that there are challenges to reaching non-Anglo audiences, but maybe that’s partly because they’ve been ignored for so long. It pains me deeply to see this division in the body of Christ…I hope and pray more and more CBA publishers will be willing to take this risk.
The same could be said for the Republican party. Though many Blacks and Latinos are christian and many christians are Republican, the majority of blacks hold to the Democratic ticket because the Repubs haven’t found a way to invite or connect with them. Likewise, the christian book market has not included or seemed to include the blacks on book covers or in story ethnicity. Wonder why?
Elaine, over the years, CBA publishers have tried to extend their reach into the African American readership but generally been unsuccessful at it. It isn’t for wont of trying; the connection just hasn’t occurred. No one seems to be able to figure out what the disconnect is.
I’ve often thought my own story would make for good fiction: 45 year old man traces his genealogy and learns he is part black. He meets the black arm of the family and discovers it was his mulatto great-grandmother who insisted the blacks never contact the whites. The common family stories and physical traits, except for skin color, are astonishing.
I’d like to write that as fiction, but haven’t figured out how to work conflict into it; it would be too much memoir.
Risk?
One name comes to mind – the late Eleanor Freide, who brought “Jonathan Livingston Seagull” to the market.
She risked a lot on a novella (about 10k words) about a talking bird.
(The story of JSL’s author, Richard Bach, is also a cautionary tale for those who think that hitting it big is a key to the good life. He made some bad investments and lost everything when he could not pay taxes, including the rights to his books – which he eventually bought back. Last January he was nearly killed in an airplane crash, but since then has been able to ‘finish’ JSL. He’d always felt the story needed more, but never knew what to say, until now.)
Umm. I am NEVER playing Trivial Pursuit with you.
Ever.
Or Monopoly.
Or checkers.
I could whup you at Go Fish.
So there.
Yeah, but I botched the acronym…twice.
JLS. Not JSL!
Nyah nyah, can’t spel!!
Although…you *can* rebuild a plane…but…I can still beat you at Go Fish!!
I’m with Jennifer. I am NEVER playing Trivial Pursuit with you and your amazing mind for facts, Andrew. As far as the acronym, I knew what you meant. 😉
Andrew, that’s a great example of taking a risk. That book’s success was a stunning surprise.
You know, it’s interesting being an author. We hear “Be unique! Have a fresh voice! Have a fresh idea!” And yet, when it comes right down to it, we can’t be TOO unique or TOO fresh, or we miss the boat entirely. We have to work within certain confines. It hasn’t really bothered me, since my ideas have fallen within the market, but I can imagine the frustration of those whose ideas or topics or characters do not. It’s a delicate balance to achieve, so it would be nice if publishers took more risks.
I don’t have much more insight to offer on the matter, but am looking forward to others’ comments and your responses, Janet. 🙂
Lindsay, I’ve often said that a writer must listen to her head AND her heart. Her head informs her what the market wants; her heart tells her what she must write. Successful writers manage to listen to listen to both.
Wise advice, Janet.
I know how difficult it was for me to write the book I was passionate about, only to get initial feedback that historicals should be set in the USA (this was pre-Regency boom…thankfully now there are historicals set outside the US). Or to be told the topic you’re passionate about isn’t marketable.
I think in the end you have to keep evaluating what success looks like for you personally as an author. For me, it was getting my Viking novel into the most readers’ hands. Initially, I was convinced traditional pubbing was the best way to reach the most people. But I’m thankful the e-pub industry has opened all kinds of doors in this day and age. It really is something to rejoice about…that we have options in achieving our writing dreams, even if we don’t quite fit the mold.
Heather, your Viking novels are a good example of the joys of digital publishing. You’re absolutely right that each writer needs to understand what it means for him or her to be a “successful” author. Sometimes that means DIY.
Yes, Janet–it’s funny how God had to change my vision of success! I thought I knew the exact best way to go about it…but all those long times of waiting have actually worked together for good in my writing life (never thought I’d say that! Who likes waiting!?). I’m thrilled that I can reach both an ABA and a CBA audience, which was really what I wanted from the very start. I’m thankful to Books and Such for all these posts that have helped every step of the writing journey!
I’m about to leave for a hunting and fishing week, and am rushing around like the crazy woman that I am. But I had to respond to this post.
I’m about to crest 50,000 followers. (That’s not a typo.) I have two complete manuscripts, and am working on a third in a series of five. Mary is doing a WONDERFUL job responding to editors’ inquiries about my work.
BUT…as a retired (successful) businesswoman, I am struggling with this question: if publishers are so stymied in responding to something that supposedly has everything they want (fresh voice, strong following, driven writing, excellent marketing, plus solid theology thanks to my seminary degree), how difficult are they going to be to work with once the ink is dry?
Will they be unreponsive? Do they have the ability to move quckly and creatively? Can they exist “out of the box?” Will they know what to do with my non-traditional work?
Best I can tell, everything about a first-book launch has to be perfect to build momentum for future books. Do traditional publishers have the ability to respond vigorously to the market and it’s changing profile? For me, that’s the baseline question.
NLBH
Of course, the word should be “its” and not “it’s” in the last paragraph. Forigve me as I pack my fly rod and 20-gauge…
NLBH
Norma, publishers are working hard to figure out how to successfully bring a book to the market. But as I said in my post, safe thinking doesn’t end with the editorial department; everyone gets the message, as they see the decisions being made as to what to publish, that being safe is smarter than trying something new.
The good news is that, if a publisher is prepared to take a risk on a debut novelist, the rest of the publishing house tends to fall in line with that thinking.
Thanks for taking the time to respond, Janet. I’ll follow up with discussions with Mary in the coming months. There is MUCH to consider. NLBH
Dang. FORGIVE, not forigve. I quit.
DO NOT QUIT!!
Just bring in some serious fish and cook us all a nice shore lunch and we’ll ponder things for you.
Have a great trip!!
No, no, no. I don’t mean quit WRITING, but rather trying to type correctly this morning. My office is cold (six inches of snow this weekend), and my fingers are numb.
And I hate to disappoint you, Jennifer, but I do catch-and-release unless I’m tournament fishing (where fish have to be weighed on an official dock-side scale). Could I interest you in a chukkar/grouse/pheasant dinner?
(Thanks for the encouragement and smile.)
I know you’d never really quit.
Mmmm! Yes!!
Tournament fishing?? How cool is that?!?! Umm, I’m SORT OF competitive, so…whup all and make them cry!!
Yeah. What she said. LOL 🙂
Janet, thanks for the honest view of publishing today.
One of the things that struck me after ACFW’s conference is that there seems to be a clamoring for more honest, realistic contemporary fiction, but the Christian publishing world doesn’t seem too eager to go that route.
Someone said that Christian publishers sell most of their books to women between forty to sixty. I’m not sure how correct that is–I’ve been buying and reading Christian fiction since I was a teenager–but I just hit forty this year so… 🙂 I know I want reality in my fiction, which is probably why I write it. (I know, I’m smart.)
But this person pointed out that eventually CBA fiction has to draw in the younger crowd of readers since the older crowd will disappear over time. How big of an issue is that to CBA? Or has time proven that as the younger crowd matures, they start reading the safer Christian fiction?
Are Christian publishers actively trying to bring in readers in their twenties or thirties? To me, this is where the trend in publishing could take off. Younger readers want honesty in their fiction because that’s who they are–blunt and real. They don’t pretend life isn’t what it is. Plus, they’ve been exposed to so much more than my generation was. Which, sadly, is saying something.
Off the top of your head, Janet, is there a period of CBA fiction where you believe publishers didn’t fear risk? Perhaps everyone believed they were risk-averse, but looking back we can see that they weren’t?
Sally, thanks for your thoughtful questions. I would say CBA is doing a better job of providing nonfiction than fiction for younger readers. I’m hard-pressed to think of much fiction that would fit that category. Anyone else come up with any? I think it’s an area in which CBA would do well to connect with readers. The general market has created the category of New Adult to describe readers who still like teen fiction but are ready for more adult yet youthful novels. CBA hasn’t dipped into that pool unless Zonderkidz’s Blink would qualify (which I don’t think it does; it’s aiming for teens).
Have publishers always been risk averse? Of course. Taking risks is uncomfortable, scary, and threatening to the long-term well-being of every business. But different times in publishing’s history have encouraged taking risks–when the economy is strong; when the publishing industry experiences good growth; when readers are increasing in the number of books they’re buying. As you can see, none of those elements are in place now; hence risk aversion is running high.
As a 30-something (barely), I am SO HAPPY to hear you say this! And glad it came from your literary agency since you guys actually rep this tiny market. (What are you looking for in 20/30 something fiction submissions, btw?)
CBA NEEDS to broaden its market to include “New Adult.” It could redefine NA beyond its erroneous (but popularly held) reputation as erotic YA. My reading friends and I are beyond YA, but the bulk of adult fiction (regardless of genre) doesn’t really appeal to us either. We want to read books about characters in our lifestage with faith. Current New Adult selections provide the life-stage part, but not the faith part. CBA could remedy this. And I have concerns for CBA’s future if their generational issues are left unresolved.
As a teen, I gobbled up Christian YA. Since leaving college (a decade ago) I’ve been adrift with what to read. The median age of CBA protags is probably 27, but they don’t act or think like most of the 27 year-olds I know.
CBA novelists whose books I would count as 20/30 something reads: Christa Parrish, Jenny B. Jones, and Bethany Pierce. Also, some books by Susan Meissner and Nancy Rue provide great examples of bridging New Adult and Women’s fiction–they’ve got wide appeal. All of these books not only address spiritual issues in real/deep ways, they also address appropriate issues for this age group: formation of identity and spiritual beliefs apart from your family and beginning serious relationship, marriage and/or career. Women in their late 30s and into their 40s and 50s can also deal with these issues, but in different ways.
Oh, and Christian NA actually does exist in E-books, but those can be difficult to find in the murky mess called AmazonBarnesandNoble.
My 33 sense. And the end of this angsty Millinial reply. GenXer’s and Boomers rejoice! 😉
Thanks for this much-needed post, Janet! I am a risk-taker. Always have been. Risk-taking means putting one’s foot in the Jordan BEFORE the waters part, trusting God to part them (Joshua 3:15-17). Risk-taking means letting go of the good in order to experience the best. Risk-taking means leaving behind the known and the comfortable and launching into the unknown and the uncomfortable, trusting we will make amazing discoveries in that new place. Risk-takers are eagles, and eagles fly alone.
Blessings,
MaryAnn Diorio
_________________________________
MaryAnn Diorio, PhD, MFA
Novelist & Poet
Truth through Fiction®
http://www.maryanndiorio.com
But one would hope that, periodically, a publishing committee could reach down deep and come up with the courage to say yes to a risky project. One would hope.
I personally think it’s a phase the industry is going through while the publishers try to figure out a business model that works in this new age of massive indie-publishing and online retailing.
Everyone talks about author branding, but publishers are going to have to start emphasizing themselves as brands. Most readers don’t have a clue (or care) about which house published the book they just bought. They care about the the author and/or the subject matter.
To be relevant, publishers will have to make readers aware of their (the publisher’s) value in the market. When readers start noticing that books released by publisher A tend to be better reads than independently published books (because of editing etc.), the publishers will be able to take more chances on unknown authors.
However, if publishers keep trying to cling to their old ways of doing things, they may well go extinct. Then the publishing market will be all indies, and writers will be taking the risks that the publishers used to take for them. Editors will be freelancers and agents will be career and publicity managers.
That’s one scenario, anyway.
Elissa, I don’t think publishers will go extinct any time in the near future because so many authors still want to go the traditional publishing route. But publishers do need to think carefully if they are bringing less and less value to the writer and the market. Certainly one way they can add value is by building their brand. Most readers have sipped from the indy water and realize that the likelihood of finding the water clean and refreshing is pretty slim.
A few years ago I took a survey from a MAJOR Christian publisher. One of the questions asked, “Where would you like your fiction set?” It gave a list to choose from. Nothing said suburbs of a major metropolitan area. Most of the choices were small-townish kind of places. I couldn’t answer the question!!! I work for a Christian Counseling office and am involved in other Christian groups in our area. The percentage of Christians in this area may be small, but since the population is large, the numbers of us are significant. Many clients have told me they do not read Christian fiction because they do not relate to it. So my question is, is their a whole population of people who could be a potential reading base, but they’ve only given up on the genre??? I hope someone will try to buck that trend and be creative in how to reach us in the BW-suburbs, because we definitely need some Godly examples of how to live for Christ among those who will spurn our faith.
:o)–My soapbox!
Connie, this is an example of CBA publishers going for the obvious audience–more CBA readers prefer the small-town setting. Publishers who have produced novels that take place in urban settings found insufficient readers chose those books over the small community ones. Hopefully publishers will periodically test the waters to see if, with just the right novel, an urban setting is a viable option. But that requires urbanites to cast their votes via the books they buy. If they’ve scuttled reading Christian fiction, how is the publisher to get those readers back?
Connie, I write big city/suburb fiction! We’re kindred spirits, clearly!
I’m a pastor’s wife, and I’m always surprised at the very few Christians in churches that don’t read Christian fiction. At all! They’re careful in what they watch on TV, what they listen to–they want that to be God-honoring–but when it comes to fiction, they read what everyone else is reading. There’s a huge potential market there that just doesn’t know what’s out there–and it frustrates me! But I get that it’s a big risk for the publisher too. They don’t have the money to go out and convince a whole slew of people to try their stuff.
I recently told a friend about Lisa Bergren’s book Waterfall being free. My friend downloaded it and loved it! She’s brought it up twice in our conversations. So I’m hoping I’m bringing a new CF convert into the fold. 🙂
Word of mouth does the trick every time, Sally.
Janet, What are your thoughts on small, independent publishers? I’m thinking they may have a unique ability to take risks and find new audiences for Christian fiction authors who want to push the envelope a bit. Perhaps there is an audience of nominal Christians who would like to consider spiritual things more deeply, but want grittier fare.
Sydney, certainly a small, independent publisher is in a good position to produce riskier books, but the challenge is finding the audiences for those books–the same challenge a larger publisher faces. Plus it’s harder for a small publisher to create a trend because it doesn’t have the resources to let a popular title reach its full potential.
For Love Inspired, I’ve found that larger towns or cities work if you give them that “small town” feel. I.e. a close community within the book.
This post didn’t really encourage me, or I suspect authors trying to “break in”. I’ve sold one Love Inspired Suspense and I’m working on that. Most likely I will self publish my full length novels and wind up a “hybrid” author.
Who knows?
Lisa, it clearly wasn’t my goal to write an encouraging blog post today. Instead, I wanted to write about an issue in publishing that bothers me because of the long-term affects, if risk aversion continues at the level I’m seeing it at currently.
Congrats on your LI book. Hopefully there will be more. And who knows what the future holds for publishing? To say it’s dynamic is to speak with restraint.
Janet, excellent post and thanks for laying it on the line. “Breakout books are unlikely to emerge” in a risk-averse environment. I do think this is where small presses and self-published authors can gain a foothold in today’s publishing climate. If you can tap into that trend the public is interested in and provide a quality book that makes readers want to come back for more, you might be able to bypass the process. I do find it comforting that e-readers have helped the READERS become the final judge of what they want to read. Not that I think 50 Shades was something great (just the opposite), but many popular authors today started out in the earlier days of self-pubbing (Kiera Cass, for example) and were able to build up a massive readership, even in a niche market (she started w/YA mermaid stories, I think).
And I was just talking with a friend about how self-pubbers may be the next pool trad. pubbers draw from…it makes sense if they have demonstrated sales and a readership already in place. The risk goes down for the trad. publishers at that point.
You’re absolutely right, Heather. Publishers definitely have their eye on self-published books that garner significant sales. It’s a way to look for what readers want without having to engage in risky decisions. And Fifty Shades certainly gave a boost to erotic books, although I’m not sure it actually jumpstarted a trend.
I just self-published … I hope you are right about that!
I am so loving this site!
Congrats, Shelli!
Thank you, Heather!
Lots of food for thought today, Janet. It seems the publishing industry is taking its cues from the risk adverse movie industry who are mostly putting out sequels to blockbusters or remaking past successful movies.
I’m all for more reality in my Christian fiction. I can’t say I relate to most of the characters I read in Christian fiction; though I tend to read a fair amount of historical fiction, so maybe I need to expand into more contemporary titles.
Cheryl, yes, the film industry makes the publishing industry look like a bold venture in comparison. That’s probably because every film is so incredibly costly. A couple of wrong choices, and tens of millions of dollars are lost. Egads!
I think a trend to more realistic Christian fiction is just starting to simmer. Hooray!
Janet, in my day job I see this all the time. New technologies are always followed by me-too’s who try to mimic the success of first-movers. Sometimes they bump aside the first ones to market, but they’re sometimes nothing more special than knock-offs produced by people lacking the creativity to invent something truly new.
In fiction, the way time-to-market delays the introduction of new products can make late entrants into a trend too late to be relevant. Readers’ innate sense of whether or not an author is truly passionate about the genre can keep trend-followers from success too.
It seems to me that while authors should keep an eye on trends, particularly in the genre they’re passionate about, but fundamentally we have to write what we love and work hard to tailor it to our readers’ appetites. Getting it through the clogged distribution channels is another issue.
Michael, your last paragraph is a good summary of how writers need to think about this. The first step is to know what you’re passionate about; then keep up with what’s happening in your genre or category of choice. The distribution issue is a different animal altogether.
One different risk I wish publishers would take is to spend a lot on publicizing books by new authors and not as much on books by authors who are already well known. Of course the already-famous ones wouldn’t be happy if their advances were smaller, but their books will probably sell well anyway because of their established fan bases. And, with enough publicity, the newbies might become best sellers, too.
Janet, when I worked for the educational division of a major publisher in the 80’s, my entire department was considered a risk. The language arts department had a tremendous hold on the market and brought in oodles of cash, so the publisher could take some of that and allocate it for taking a risk (vocational education). Today, publishers are struggling to pay the rent, salaries and book production costs. They’re in a desperate attempt to stay alive and they don’t have much extra to allocate for taking a risk.
Susi, most of the publishers I work with are past the frightening days of the economic downturn during which paying the rent was a very real issue. Today, with the success of digital sales, publishers are on firmer footing. Note I say “firmer,” not firm. It would be wrong for a publisher to take risks when personnel were being laid off, but that’s not the scenario of today.
Well, that’s encouraging. It would be wonderful to experience another economic era when publishers could feel more confident taking a risk. Hopeful.
All I have to say is that I am proud of (and grateful to) my publisher, Harvest House, for taking a risk on me as an unknown author!
Amen to that, Josh! Let’s not forget, as you bemoan the lack of risk-taking, to celebrate those moments that a publisher did just that.
I’m a little late to the party, but loved reading all the comments.
Janet, haven’t many publishing houses filled their fiction slots, and determined release dates for those titles well into 2014 and beyond?
If this is the case, taking a risk on a new author or a niche market could backfire by the time the book is available to the public. Timing is everything.
As an agent who asks great questions of the publishers she interacts with, do you feel like you have the benefit of tapping into the trends around the bend? If so, does this weigh heavily on the decisions you make about new clients, and the risk you’re willing to take in that regard?
Something that has been on my mind a lot lately is the ripple effect of writing about the history of the area I live in. Not only can I reach out to local readers, but I can support local businesses (museums, libraries, etc) that want to draw the public eye to their institutions. An author in my area recently released a NF title that harkened back to a specific time local history that she lived through. She has had great success speaking, and gathering interest from residents who grew up in this area. I think those of us who write fiction could partner with someone who writes NF, and dually benefit.
Jenni, publishers have had to make purchasing decisions about two years ahead of release dates for about as far back as I can recall. So publishers are trying to forecast what buyers will want to read in 2015 or even 2016 at this point. In such a rapidly changing industry, that’s really tough.
That also means agents need to be thinking that far ahead. Because we agents know what publishers are buying, that can affect what we represent, but at Books & Such we look not only at the project in front of us but also at the writer’s long-term potential. That helps to give us a broader view than what might be the next big trend; we’re looking for clients with staying power, whose writing will enable them to ride out the changing tide.
Regarding the advantage of writing fiction with a local setting, it definitely can be advantageous. After all, you’re writing about something you know well and most likely have a passion for. And there are inherent ways in which you can locally promote your work, which in turn, promotes aspects of your community. And lucky you for connecting with a nonfiction writer who is also connected to the local community.
There are other ways to connect with someone locally who writes, say, nonfiction, and that’s through topic. If your stories center around knitting, your community might well house a nonfiction author who writes about knitting. Voila! A match stitched together from a different type of affinity.
Janet, I couldn’t agree more. Aversion to risk kills creativity. I refuse to fit into the box that fear crafts. In this publishing environment, fulfilling my particular mission as a writer sometimes becomes a matter of faith.
My dog Dinozzo just wrote his first book. I think it could be the next BIG trend setter.
The title is: Fifty Jokes You Should Never Tell Your Cat.